Light On Dark Water

The weather: why is it so often wrong?

While parts of the country due north and west from here are having floods and tornadoes, we're having a drought. We had a big storm on Ash Wednesday that dumped several inches of rain in a few hours. That was March 9, almost three months ago now. Since then we have had, I think, three showers, of which one may have been somewhere close to half an inch (about 1cm) and two were at most a quarter of an inch (half a centimeter). There was one sprinkle that barely got the bottom of the rain gauge wet. That's it. Anything that isn't being watered regularly is drying up and blowing away. 

And it's hot. Summer is over, in the sense that most of the world understands summer. Bill Finch, the gardening editor of the local paper, insists that we have six seasons. He calls the period from roughly March through June "American summer," meaning it's what people north of, say, Tennessee call summer. But American summer has ended early this year. The temperature has been at or near 100F (36C) for the past couple of days. 

Which means that the Gulf is warming up nicely. Hurricanes like warm water. I'm afraid that our drought is not going to end till August, when a hurricane drops 12 inches (30cm) in 24 hours.

There's a 20% chance of rain this weekend, which means scattered thunderstorms. Usually scattered thunderstorms pass by north of here, but I'm clinging to a sliver of hope.

Maclin Horton

7 responses to “The weather: why is it so often wrong?”

  1. Daniel Nichols

    Here, it has been the coldest rainiest spring in memory, followed by record breaking heat…
    After the tornadoes in Massachusetts, Senator Kerry said that this was a “once in a century” event.
    I wish.
    Apparently intense weather is here to stay for the near future. Some say it is apocalyptic, others that it is climate change, the result of industrialization. It is not apparent to me that the two views are mutually exclusive.
    Lord have mercy.

    Reply
  2. Mac

    My father used to say that his father used to say that there’s no such thing as a normal year, which I think is true, so I try not to be alarmist, but one does wonder. I think the trend here has been toward the dry since Katrina (which provoked a lot of apocalyptic talk). But last year, iirc, was cooler and rainier than usual. In any case, I’m going to have a big water bill this month–I just can’t stand to let all this stuff we’ve planted shrivel up and die. Even 4 or 5 year old trees with decent root systems are wilting. That reminds me, I need to go move the hose.

    Reply
  3. Paul

    It’s barely rained here since we had a rainwater cistern put in. I’m not entirely certain there isn’t some sort of causal connection.

    Reply
  4. Mac

    Right, I think it’s things like that, rather than global warming, that are more likely causes. In my case, likewise, I planted several little cedars and a sago palm that need plenty of water to get established. Therefore…

    Reply
  5. Jesse Canterbury

    I had to read the title of this post a couple of times. Initially I assumed you were asking, “why is the prediction of weather so often wrong?” For which I’d immediately mentally prepared a long list of explanations about the nonlinearity of fluid dynamics, etc.
    Then upon rereading I realized you’re asking “why is the weather so often wrong?” Which is rather a different question.

    Reply
  6. Mac

    Yeah, I thought people might read it like that, but it was a quick post, and nothing better came to mind. What I really wanted to say was “why is it always wrong?” But I refrained, in a count-your-blessings and also a don’t-tempt-fate restraint.
    I understand, in a broad way, why forecasts are not that reliable: weather is way too dang complicated.

    Reply
  7. Mac

    Once again: Mobile gets a thundershower, while Fairhope, approximately 20m (32km) southeast, gets not a drop.
    Moreover, my car broke down.

    Reply

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